Tim Harford shows how statistics and be used–and misused. He uses a quote to introduce a factor that skews statistics. “As Donald Trump’s former right-hand man Steve Bannon infamously told writer Michael Lewis: ‘The Democrats don’t matter. The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.'” (p. 13). Making up “Fake News” and inventing statistics can overwhelm rational analysis.
Statistical analysis is only as good as the data being analyzed. In the 2016 Presidential Election, voters were unsettled by events–like the Justice Department probe into Hillary Clinton’s emails–and opinion polls didn’t reflect the actual state of the race. “Both problems hit U.S. pollsters in the notorious 2016 election, when the polls seemed to put Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in the swing states that would decide the contest. There was a late swing toward Trump, and also the same kind of non-response bias that had doomed the 2015 UK polls: it turned out to have been easier for pollsters to find Clinton supporters than Trump supporters.” (p. 147)
When used correctly, statistics can be a powerful tool. But today with all kinds of misinformation and hacking and data manipulation by Bad Actors, it is harder than ever to achieve accurate results. GRADE: B+
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Introduction – How To Lie With Statistics 1
Rule 1 Search Your Feelings 19
Rule 2 Ponder Your Personal Experience 47
Rule 3 Avoid Premature Enumeration 65
Rule 4 Step Back And Enjoy The View 87
Rule 5 Get The Backstory 105
Rule 6 Ask Who Is Missing 135
Rule 7 Demand Transparency When The Computer Says No 153
Rule 8 Don’t Take Statistical Bedrock For Granted 185
Rule 9 Remember That Misinformation Can Be Beautiful, Too 213
Rule 10 Keep An Open Mind 239
The Golden Rule Be Curious 265
Acknowledgments 281
Notes 285
Credits 307
Index 309