“There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” –Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (2002)
Amar Bhide, Professor at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, takes a deep dive into probabilities and knowledge management in Uncertainty and Enterprise: Venturing Beyond the Known (2025).
Bhide stresses the importance of facts and reliable data in the process of making decisions. But Bhide also analyzes the work of Frank Knight, John Maynard Keynes, Hebert Simon, and many other researchers who wrote about uncertainty in making decisions.
The old saying, “Garbage in, Garbage Out,” applies to the process of decision making. False “facts” and “fake” news damage the process of making the right choice.
My favorite chapter in Uncertainty and Enterprise was “Daniel Ellsberg’s Ambiguity: A Simplifying Side Trip.” I only knew about Daniel Ellsberg’s Vietnam War role in the Pentagon Papers case. But Bhide examines Ellsberg’s 1961 article, “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms,” which support Bhide’s claims that not dealing with risk and ambiguity in decision making precisely encourages choices that contravene standard patterns and can lead to disasters…like the Vietnam War.
If you’re having trouble dealing with known unknowns and unknown unknowns, Amar Bhide’s book will bring you some needed enlightenment. GRADE: A
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Preface — ix
Part I: Invitation to the Voyage
1. The Offering — 3
2. Uncertainty as Doubt — 10
3. Conjectures about Justification — 23
4. Applications to Enterprise — 33
Part II: Formidable Obstacles, Forgotten Beacons
5. Frank Knight: The Spark That Did Not Ignite — 43
6. Practically Omniscient Microeconomics — 52
7. Imperfect Market Theories: Realism without Fallibility — 60
8. John Maynard Keynes: Help to Distraction — 69
9. Herbert Simon: Faded Guiding Star — 90
10. Daniel Ellsberg’s Ambiguity: A Simplifying Side Trip — 110
11. Kahneman and Tversky: Gaining Acceptance, Dropping Uncertainty — 126
12. Richard Thaler & Co.: Building the New Behavioral Boomtowns — 148
Part III: The Specialization of Enterprise
13. Including Uncertainty: Recapitulation and Preview — 165
14. “Bootstrapping” Improvised Startups — 176
15. Calculating Capitalists: VCs and Angels Investors — 197
16. The Evolution of Dynamic Bureaucracies — 217
17. The Dominions of Giants — 232
Part IV: Imaginative Discourse
18. The Aims of Discourse — 259
19. The Devices of Discourse — 268
20. Stories As Side Dishes — 281
21. Spillovers from Popular Stories — 298
Part V: Coda
22. The Case for Widening — 315
Acknowledgments — 335
Notes — 337
References — 383
Index — 405