Tim Harford shows how statistics and be used–and misused. He uses a quote to introduce a factor that skews statistics. “As Donald Trump’s former right-hand man Steve Bannon infamously told writer Michael Lewis: ‘The Democrats don’t matter. The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.'” (p. 13). Making up “Fake News” and inventing statistics can overwhelm rational analysis.
Statistical analysis is only as good as the data being analyzed. In the 2016 Presidential Election, voters were unsettled by events–like the Justice Department probe into Hillary Clinton’s emails–and opinion polls didn’t reflect the actual state of the race. “Both problems hit U.S. pollsters in the notorious 2016 election, when the polls seemed to put Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in the swing states that would decide the contest. There was a late swing toward Trump, and also the same kind of non-response bias that had doomed the 2015 UK polls: it turned out to have been easier for pollsters to find Clinton supporters than Trump supporters.” (p. 147)
When used correctly, statistics can be a powerful tool. But today with all kinds of misinformation and hacking and data manipulation by Bad Actors, it is harder than ever to achieve accurate results. GRADE: B+
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Introduction – How To Lie With Statistics 1
Rule 1 Search Your Feelings 19
Rule 2 Ponder Your Personal Experience 47
Rule 3 Avoid Premature Enumeration 65
Rule 4 Step Back And Enjoy The View 87
Rule 5 Get The Backstory 105
Rule 6 Ask Who Is Missing 135
Rule 7 Demand Transparency When The Computer Says No 153
Rule 8 Don’t Take Statistical Bedrock For Granted 185
Rule 9 Remember That Misinformation Can Be Beautiful, Too 213
Rule 10 Keep An Open Mind 239
The Golden Rule Be Curious 265
Acknowledgments 281
Notes 285
Credits 307
Index 309
Truly frightening times for us.
Patti, I recently gassed my SUV at Sam’s Club. A few hours later I got a phone call from Sam’s Club. “Do you want to buy 12 SONY PlayStations? There’s someone here with your credit card information who wants to charge the purchase.” I of course said, “No!” and the Sam’s Club employee apologized. A series of customers who used the Sam’s Club gas pumps had their credit card information stolen by an illegal chip inserted in the credit cart reader. Then I had to call Capital One and report the hack and get a new credit card. What a hassle!
Yeah, that’s bad. It’s happened to us more than once, once in New Orleans.
By “flood the zone with shit,” of course, Bannon means get Trump elected. The man is slime.
Jeff, so much Dark Money is swirling around Trump right now. The Saudis might bail Trump out…or Putin. Bannon is a creep…but a dangerous creep.
Essentially all Trumpoids/MAGAts are dangerous creeps. Or poor befuddled souls. Mostly the former.
Given the degree to which people never bother to vote, I rather hope the less-insane majority of actual voters will prevail, but we still have an Electoral College for no good reason, ever, and still don’t have ranked-choice voting.
Todd, Republicans and conservatives will resist change to voting (since any change will diminish their chances of winning) including the Electoral College and ranked-choice options.
Not so much chips as fraudulent card-readers that can be placed over the actual card-readers, relatively unobtrusively, at such things as gas-pump payment slots. Chips inside those, of course. One has to watch out for them at ATMs at the likes of convenience stores, as well, where they also might not be patrolled as much as they would be at the actual cash registers in one’s 24-7 Mart.
Todd, several of my friends have found their credit card information hacked by fraudulent card-card readers–just like my Capital One card. I try “tapping” my credit card when that option is available.
White lies, damn lies, and statistics! I don’t need to read a book to know about them!
Bob, there are some new tricky lies you might want to learn about!
Old lies, new liars!