Alex Edmans, a Professor of Finance at London Business School, takes a deep dive into the manipulation of data and information so common in so much of our communications and “news.” The key element Edmans focuses on is our tendency to believe “facts” and “stories” that support our biases. If we’re pro-women running corporations, we’re much more willing to believe “studies” that show women CEOs out-perform male CEOs (according to Edmans, the jury is still out on this issue).
The other major culprit in skewing information is data mining. Data mining is a technique to search data for “facts” that support whatever you’re trying to prove. There may be a 1000 studies on whether breast-feeding increases a baby’s IQ, but data mining will find the studies that support your belief that infant formula works just was well. Whether it does or not, is another question.
With all the “research” being done, Edmans warns that anyone with a computer can find “evidence” to support just about any position–whether it’s true or false. That’s how conspiracy theories grow and thrive on junk science.
Deliberate confusion is the norm today. So many random facts are thrown about in the game of bewildering and baffling us. Is red meat bad or good? Should we drink a shot of vinegar (or extra virgin olive oil) each day to improve our heath? Are electric cars really better than gas powered cars?
I came away after reading May Contain Lies with a renewed skepticism and wariness about current “research” and social trends. I’m more liable to look at multiple sets of facts about an issue now and not just reject “evidence” that conflicts with my biases. Like Joni Mitchell suggests, I need to consider Both Sides Now. You might want to think about that, too. GRADE: A
Table of Contents:
Introduction — 1
PART I: THE BIASES
1. Confirmation Bias — 15
2. Black- and- White Thinking — 17
PART II: THE PROBLEMS
3. A Statement is Not Fact — 57
4. A Fact is Not Data — 59
5. Data is Not Evidence: Data Mining — 89
6. Data is Not Evidence: Causation — 115
7. When Data is Evidence — 168
8. Evidence is Not Proof — 192
PART III: THE SOLUTION
9. Thinking Smarter as Individuals — 211
10. Creating Organizations that Think Smarter — 235
11. Creating Societies that Think Smarter — 259
Appendix: A Checklist for Smarter Thinking — 283
Acknowledgements — 293
Notes — 295
Index — 313
I’ve known this for years! Four out of five doctors agree!
Bob, but what about those doctors who carelessly prescribe opioids to their patients?
My rule of thumb is: if a source of any “data” is Fox News and/or a right-leaning website/show/podcast, I’m immediately distrustful.
Deb, I seldom trust anything that’s on the Internet, Facebook, Tik-Tok, etc.
My biases have been rolling along prettily happily, and then you print this post. Sheesh! Thanks a lot, George!
Jerry, forewarned is forearmed!
What Deb said, obviously. Yes, eggs are bad for you, or good. They increase your cholesterol, only they don’t. Ditto, coffee and chocolate are bad, until they’re good, or at least dark chocolate is.
As far as the rest goes, what can I say>? If we needed any more proof that people are stupid and yes, this really IS who we are (present company excepted, of course) as a country, the recent election proved it. People want to believe vaccines cause autism and other unnamed, inexplicable dangers. Why? Other than “because they’re stupid,” you tell me. So when there is a resurgence not only of measles but who knows what else, we know who is to blame.
Hey, for years we had crusaders carrying on how cell towers “obviously” give you brain cancer, so Not In My Backyard. Yet these same people walk around all day WITH THEIR CELLPHONES IN THEIR POCKETS. Go ahead, ‘splain. They’re stupid? Yes, they are.
IDIOCRACY really was ahead of its time. It’s not just TikTok and Instagram and The Former Twitter, but they all make things so much worse every single day,
And Get Off My Damn Lawn!
Jeff, unstable people gravitate to X and Tik-Tok and Meta with their anti-vaccine diatribes and conspiracy theories. RFK, Jr. is the prime example.
IDIOCRACY remains an uncredited pastiche of “The Marching Morons”…and, if anything, the pres election proves yet again how checked-out of the process most potential voters are…when barely 1/5th of the country give a sliver of victory over the other fifth who voted, even if that first fifth voted for a blithering idiot…not our first pres thus, even if we don’t count his previous installment by the Electoral College, a remarkably stupid institution to retain, even if it Does make things easier for the big parties and donors to throw money at elections.
And, of course, reliance on opinion polls is another cherished stupidity that gains us little good. Any more than setting up children as shooting gallery targets does.
Todd, and we all know polls can be manipulated.
And it will only get worse as the right tries to manipulate the news even more. Witness the Stephanapolos (sp?) suit.
Patti, Trump will use the Justice Department to attack his enemies.
You mean the way Biden did!? Shameful!
Amusingly, Drumpf whined that he shouldn’t’ve had to sue ABC, the feds should’ve stepped in on his behalf. Considering he was suing because George S on THIS WEEK suggested he was found guilty of rape rather than held responsible for sexual assault, the whining has a pretty remarkable frame on it.
Todd, I’m sure Trump supporters are glad their hero was found only guilty of rape instead of sexual assault.