Many of my picks for Oscar gold have no chance of winning. I thought Zero Dark Thirty was the best movie, but the torture scenes have made the movie radioactive in the Academy’s mind. That rationale also sinks Jessica Chastain’s hopes for Best Actress. I liked Bradley Cooper’s performance in Silver Linings Playbook, but the demographics of the Academy (old) will give the Best Actor Oscar to Daniel Day-Lewis. Here are my predictions (guesses really) for the Oscar winners. We didn’t get a chance to see Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild yet. Who do you think will win?
BEST MOVIE: ARGO
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis
BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones
BEST DIRECTOR: Stephen Spielberg
I agree with all of these predictions although they would not be my choices. I would certainly award the actress from AMOUR for one thing. And I think ZERO was a better movie too. I think the one place you might be wrong is with TLJ. I think they might give it to De Niro.
Patti, ZERO DARK THIRTY is the best movie of 2012 But politics plays a role in Oscar winners. I wasn’t that impressed by De Niro in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK.
Looks like Nate Silver agrees with you. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/
Nate and I work on the same wavelength much of the time, Patti.
If there was jusdtice in Hollywood (which there isn’t) Patti is right – Emmanuelle Riva would win. It’s not likely but it could happen. Day Lewis is a no brainer, I think, which would make him the first actor to win three Oscars for Best Actor. I havne’t seen Les Mis but everyone seems to agree Hathaway can’t lose. There could be a surprise in the Supporting Actor category – there often is in one of the supporting categories – so though Jones is the front runner and many pick De Niro it is more wide open than that.
I figured all along Spielberg would win but Ang Lee could beat him in a close race. ARGO has been my favorite since we first saw it and I’m glad the Academy seems to have come around to the same conclusion. Ironically, slighting Affleck for Best Director may well have helped the movie’s chances.
The slighting of Affleck certainly did help ARGO, Jeff. It’s a good movie, but ZERO DARK THIRTY is better.
Although I haven’t seen many of the nominated films, I’ll be in front of the tv tonight, completed Oscar ballot in hand. We usually have a friendly competition within the family–my older daughter even emails her picks from college. I agree with all of your pics except Supporting Actor, where I’m going with Philip Seymour Hoffman. But every nominee in the category has won at least one Oscar previously, so it’ll be gravy for whoever does win.
Deb, Philip Seymour Hoffman was terrific in THE MASTER. But I’m not sure that movie has the right politics for Hollywood.
Btw, am definitely not looking forward to Seth MacFarlane hosting as I find “Family Guy” one of the most boorish, unfunny shows on television. I think I’d rather see Anne Hathaway and James Franco host again! But I am looking forward to the reunion of the Bonds–if indeed that happens.
I’m not a FAMILY GUY fan, either, Deb.
Was James Franco a host? Just kidding but he was nearly invisible. Hey, as a certified geezer I remember the days of Bob Hope hosting. (“Welcome to the Academy Awards, or as we call it at my house – Passover.”) (From 1959 to 1967 ope hosted seven out of nine years.)
Jeff, I loved Bob Hope hosting the OSCARS. No one else has come close.
Those are probably the best bets to win. I preferred Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained over Argo.
Deb-I agree-can’t stand McFarlane. He just seems to full, of himself.
Steve, I’ll be amazed if DJANGO UNCHAINED wins anything. Since the Newtown shooting, violent movies have been pushed to the background in Hollywood.
I want Bob Hope to host, and John Wayne to win best actor. Barbara will watch for the clothes and so forth, I’ll probably be reading off in some other room.
Like you, Rick, I’ll have a book at hand for most of the tedious OSCARS. But, I’ll look up when Diane alerts me to a MAJOR AWARD moment.
ARGO wins, if it matters.
Seth MacFarlane is kind of an asshole, but I do like his FAMILY GUY a lot. Certainly a risky choice to host the Oscars, but will he be the crude and mean-spirited jerk people expect, or will he lose his nerve and pull his punches?
Drongo, I guess Ricky Gervais wasn’t available so the Academy opted for Seth MacFarlane. I don’t expect him to pull his punches.
The biggest surprise of the evening, IMHO, was Christoph Waltz winning Best Supporting Actor. My husband said it was a changing of the guard moment, when those (mostly) former Young Turks of the 1970s gave way to Young Turks of the 2010s.
I was okay with Christoph Waltz winning, Deb. I didn’t think DJANGO UNCHAINED would win anything in this current anti-gun, anti-violence climate.
Well, I did predict that Supporting Actor was likely to be the one surprise of the major awards and that it was wide open. I haven’t seen Django so can’t judge. I also said it was close between Spielberg and Ang Lee but as the awards went on it became clearer that Ang Lee was a likely winner.
You’re right about Ang Lee building momentum last night, Jeff. LIFE OF PI was terrific!
Waltz was certainly the best thing about DJANGO for me. He brings class to any movie he is in.
Patti, you’re right about Waltz being a classy actor. I’ll watch anything he’s in.
I watched more of it than I intended to. I thought Seth MacFarlane was awful: tasteless, insulting, about as funny as a used tissue. I’d like them to do away with the whole opening comedy routine and just get on with it.
I was pleased to see Life of Pi get the awards it did, disappointed Lincoln didn’t do a little better.
Rick, it certainly seemed that the Academy wanted to spread the Oscars around. I doubt if Seth MacFarlane will be invited back.
I was glad Waltz won. Disappointed Roger Deakins didn’t win for cinematography. 0 for 10 nominations for him.
McFarlane didn’t bother me as much as I thought he would.
Could have done without the seemingly endless and tuneless “song” from Les Miserable.
Of all the songs from LES MISERABLES, they certainly picked the wrong one, Steve.
My thought is MacFarlane did a decent job. Am I the only one who thought the John Wilkes Booth joke was funny? Probably.
I’m not a feely-touchy kind of guy, but every time I see Christoph Waltz I get an urge to pick him up and hug the little fellow. Something about him seems almost loveable.
Waltz is not that loveable in DJANGO UNCHAINED, Drongo. But he’s a fine actor.
I went to a friend’s Oscar party and we did the pre-picking to see who would win and I managed to grab the gold, picking 12 out of 24 categories. Helped that I did a bit of research before hand on predictions for the lesser known films, although I found that I did about as good when I went with my gut on those as when I went with the “experts” picks.
I thought the show itself was fine. Too long as always. They did not need that whole musical montage with Chicago and Dream Girls and I could have lived without Barbara Streisand performing. MacFarlane was entertaining and I didn’t think he was as controversial as people seemed to think he was after the show was over.
I’m with you on Barbra Streisand, Carl. And, like you, I’m not a fan of musical montages. I thought the BOND sequence was weak, too.