I’ll try to predict the OSCAR winners, but I found the 2017 movies nominated good, but not great. First, if I were voting I’d go with LADY BIRD for BEST PICTURE. I’m a sucker for “coming-of-age” movies. I’d go with Francis McDormand for BEST ACTRESS and Gary Oldman for BEST ACTOR. I’d vote for Sam Rockwell for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR and Laurie Metcalfe for BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS. But, I’m pretty sure that’s not the way things are going to turn out.
BEST ACTRESS: Francis McDormand for Three Billboards…
BEST ACTOR: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water
BEST DIRECTOR: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
BEST MOVIE: The Shape of Water

Who do you think will win?

28 thoughts on “THE OSCARS (8 P.M. on ABC)

  1. Roy Hovey

    Barring an upset, the only close race this year is between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards… A dozen odds sites say so, and they get it 95% right every year. The BS practice of having all the strong films come out late in the year has somewhat backfired I think, when it comes to (screwing) the average viewer. Typically anymore, I’ll have seen fewer than half of the films before the telecast, so all I and most can do is discuss predictions based on what we read. No fun, except for the binge movie goer that pays to watch several films in the last few weeks before the show. I agree on all your picks, though Three Billboards… might take it. Good movies, most, I agree also, but nothing I saw during the year blew me away.

    1. george Post author

      Roy, I completely agree with your analysis. No movie blew me away this year, either. One of our local Regal Theaters featured all the nominated movies running back-to-back for a week.

  2. Steve Oerkfitz

    I liked Shape of Water(Pan’s Labyrinth is better) but thought Three Billboards the better movie. A lot of good movies this year but not a lot of great ones. And why wasn’t Hostiles nominated? It was a 2017 release. A much better movie than the tedious Call Me By My Name or Phantom Thread. Liked Ladybird but not in my top 5 for the year. Same for Get Out which some people are predicting might sneak in. I didn’t like the winner last year. Thought it okay but not great. But there doesn’t seem to be that big movie that blows you away like Lawrence of Arabia or Chinatown or Goodfellas (I know the last two lost to lesser films).

  3. Jeff Meyerson

    Definitely a women’s year. We’ve seen all 5 Best Actress nominees and 3 Supporting Actress, but haven’t seen a single one of the Best Actor nominees (we quit on GET OUT after half an hour or so), and three Supporting Actor. So I can’t judge Gary Oldman, though everyone says he’s a lock.

    Best Picture – THE SHAPE OF WATER Jackie’s favorite from the beginning, this has grown on me since we’ve seen it. I liked THREE BILLBOARDS and LADY BIRD, though none blew me away.
    Best Director – Guillermo Del Toro. They’ve owed him an Oscar since PAN’S LABYRINTH, in my opinion. This should be the 4th Mexican-born director win in the last five years.
    Best Actress – Frances McDormand. I liked Saoirse Ronan a lot, also Sally Hawkins, but I think this is – again – McDormand’s year. She was fierce.
    Best Actor – I guess Gary Oldman. Very weak category.
    Supporting Actress – Laurie Metcalf was excellent, but this is Allison Janney’s year, just for the scene with the parrot.
    Supporting Actor – I like Richard Jenkins a lot, but I think Sam Rockwell will win.

    We rented COCO yesterday – the sure winner for Best Animated Feature – and Pixar has once again done a wonderful job.

    Overall, however, the days when I really, truly cared about the Oscars are well in the rear view mirror. When they announce the “extra-special guest presenters” we’re supposed to get excited about, and Dave Chappelle is on the list, well, no offense to him but he doesn’t belong on the Oscars stage. I can give you a list of 25 or 50 (even) former winners from the ’50s onward off the top of my head who should be presenting – Joanne Woodward, Sophia Loren, Julie Andrews, Julie Christie, Barbara Streisand, and Maggie Smith, just taking Best Actress through the ’60s. (The only Best Actor still alive from that era is Sidney Poitier.)

    Face it, we’re old. And get off my lawn!

    1. george Post author

      Jeff, as you point out there’s a “political dimension” to the Academy Awards now. I think the politics will translate into lower ratings for the Awards ceremony. For the first time in Forever, Diane has stated she isn’t staying up to the bitter end.

  4. Patti Abbott

    I think Rockwell will win too. Metcalf was far better than Janney, I thought. I thought Oldman was a big yawn. Lithgow was better on THE CROWN. I think Three Biilboards will win although Get Out might sneak in given the year. I think Del Torro will win best director. I liked a lot of these films a lot but didn’t love any of them with the exception of Ladybird. I think A FANTASTIC WOMAN will win best foreign film

    1. george Post author

      Dan, who are the Dallas Cowboys going to Draft? All our local sports guys attended the NFL Combine. The Bills need a QB. Badly.

  5. Deb

    This is the first year since 1972 that I have not really been interested in the Oscars. My oldest daughter has taken over the duties of keeping track of the family’s Oscar pool (we play for bragging rights), but for what it’s worth, here are my guesses:

    Movie: Three Billboards

    Director: I’m really hoping it’s Jordan Peele, simply because I’ve never warmed up to Greta Gerwig

    Actor: Gary Oldman

    Actress: Soarise Ronan

    Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell

    Supporting Actress: Alison Janney

    1. george Post author

      Deb, like you, Diane and I aren’t excited by this year’s OSCAR ceremony. None of the movies wowed us. THREE BILLBOARDS had a lot of momentum, but it seems to have slipped away.

    2. Jeff Meyerson

      Deb, as a certified geezer some years older than you, I can remember going into my mother’s bedroom ca. 1958 or so, begging to be able to stay up to watch the Oscars. Burt Lancaster, Gregory Peck, Elizabeth Taylor, Kirk Douglas, Paul Newman, you know, REAL stars,

      As Bill Crider said so often, I miss the old days. I do remember one year when the Oscars honored the history by bringing out whichever Oscar winners were still alive from the “old days,” including Luise Rainer (who, inexplicably, won back to back Oscars), who died in 2014 at 104. (I think it was 2003.)

  6. maggie Mason

    I agree with you on best actor and actress, though I think Rockwell will get supporting actor. Not sure about supporting actress, Janney had the most (startling, terrifying,?) role. I think Rockwell will win supporting, I think Del Toro will get best director and Billboards will take best, though Get Out may be the upset.

    I”ve only seen Get Out and Dunkirk, which I thought was good but thought the nom was for sentimental reasons. I was surprised at the nom for Get Out, it was good, but not epic.

  7. Rick Robinson

    Barbara saw THREE BILLBOARDS and DARKEST HOUR. I, of course, saw none. I might someday rent SHAPE OF WATER. She’ll be watching tonight, I’ll be in another room, reading.

    1. george Post author

      Rick, I’ll probably sit through the first hour of the OSCARS with a book in my lap for those long “commercial breaks.” THE SHAPE OF WATER is worth seeing if you keep your expectations low.

  8. wolf

    Hope you’ll be going to enjoy the show!

    I have to confess that we haven’t watched any of the movies in the competition – my wife doesn’t understand enough English or German so we’d have to watch them in Hungarian …
    maybe when they’ll appear on tv, but that’ll take some time.

  9. Jeff Meyerson

    There were no surprises. I got every single pick (I made) right, down to the screenplays.

    I hate when winners go into “list mode” in their thank yous. Keep it short and to the point, or make whatever statement that makes it memorable – “You like me, you really like me!” or Jamie Foxx talking about his grandmother. So I liked Frances McDormand’s the best. And Guillermo del Toro.

  10. Rick Robinson

    I ended up watching the entire show, and one thing is obvious: I’m a complete slime bag. As a multiple generation American-born citizen straight white male, I’m evil incarnate, to be despised, spit upon and dismissed as worthless garbage. I’m ashamed and will hang my head the rest of my appropriately suffering days. I expect any time now a group of righteous persons will mark an “X” on my front door to let the world know my home houses one of the despised.


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