“We wanted flying cars–instead we got 140 characters.” Peter Thiel, the tech billionaire made this comment famous in his analysis of the shortcomings of the Future. Robert J. Gordon documents what happened to our Future in this mammoth book (784 pages!). From 1870 to 1970 incredible inventions and changes boosted economic growth in the U.S.: electricity, cars, planes, antibiotics, air conditioning, rockets, and computers. But, as Gordon points out, the pace of innovation has slowed to a crawl. Cat videos on YouTube don’t have quite the economic impact as the invention of the telephone. Gordon’s message in a nutshell is that unless technological innovation increases, the growth rate of the U.S. economy will stagnant (kinda like it’s doing now). If you’re interested in economic history, this magisterial book is powerful and comprehensive. GRADE: A
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Preface ix
1. Introduction: The Ascent and Descent of Growth 1
PART I. 1870-1940–THE GREAT INVENTIONS CREATE A REVOLUTION INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE HOME 25
2. The Starting Point: Life and Work in 1870 27
3. What They Ate and Wore and Where They Bought It 62
4. The American Home: From Dark and Isolated to Bright and Networked 94
5. Motors Overtake Horses and Rail: Inventions and Incremental Improvements 129
6. From Telegraph to Talkies: Information, Communication, and Entertainment 172
7. Nasty, Brutish, and Short: Illness and Early Death 206
8. Working Conditions on the Job and at Home 247
9. Taking and Mitigating Risks: Consumer Credit, Insurance, and the Government 288
Entr’acte. The Midcentury Shift from Revolution to Evolution 319
PART II. 1940-2015–THE GOLDEN AGE AND THE EARLY WARNINGS OF SLOWER GROWTH 329
10. Fast Food, Synthetic Fibers, and Split-Level Subdivisions: The Slowing Transformation of Food, Clothing, and Housing 331
11. See the USA in Your Chevrolet or from a Plane Flying High Above 374
12. Entertainment and Communications from Milton Berle to the iPhone 409
13. Computers and the Internet from the Mainframe to Facebook 441
14. Antibiotics, CT Scans, and the Evolution of Health and Medicine 461
15. Work, Youth, and Retirement at Home and on the Job 498
Entr’acte. Toward an Understanding of Slower Growth 522
PART III. THE SOURCES OF FASTER AND SLOWER GROWTH 533
16. The Great Leap Forward from the 1920s to the 1950s: What Set of Miracles Created It? 535
17. Innovation: Can the Future Match the Great Inventions of the Past? 566
18. Inequality and the Other Headwinds: Long-Run American Economic Growth Slows to a Crawl 605
Postscript: America’s Growth Achievement and the Path Ahead 641
Acknowledgments 653
Data Appendix 657
Notes 667
References 717
Credits 741
Index 745
Back in the 1960s we thought of The Future as Rocket shops and flying cars moving things & people around. The actual future (i.e. the Present) has been unmanned space probes and the internet, moving thoughts and information around. And you may take that as you will.
Dan, you’re completely right. We had innovations that made huge impacts. I remember the first calculator I bought. It was like magic!
Me too, George!
It was only after I had finished my studies and got my math diploma (MA) and then started working in IT or EDP as it was called that I coulkd afford one – the most simple thing. And it cost 200 Deutsche Mark, a lot of money at the time …
And much later I had a funny experience, helping my granddaughter with math when she asked: At what age were you allowed to use a calculator in school …
On Innovations:
As a SF fan you might agree with me that there’s one sure thing about forecasting the future – it won’t happen that way! SF has got it wrong regularly – just like those futurologists, RAND corp e eg.
Wolf, I can remember using a slide-rule! Loved my first calculator. Now, everything is spreadsheets.
Peter Thiel, a tech billionaire who used his vast financial resources to bankrupt a company whose website (Gawker) he did not like, is hardly one to talk in high tones about what we imagined the future would be. (Harrumph.) That being said, if we’re not making and manufacturing (and buying) things anymore, no amount of viral videos of people groggy after dental procedures (oh yeah, it’s a thing) is going to balance out that loss.
Deb, I’m not a Peter Thiel fan, either. But he’s right that the pace of innovation has slowed. And, as you point out, trivial procedures and pursuits dominate our culture. My students complain they have no money, but they have iPhones, tattoos, and piercings.
Well, there are plenty of real innovations – in medicine and technology for two – as well as cat videos. But overall, I agree. No flying cars or robot maids (though that is closer) like we thought in the ’60s. But think about what doctors can do, even in the simplest diagnostic terms. Think how many people are alive today because of the medical advances. Think how many babies born at one pound can live and thrive. I just don’t think it is all negative by any means.
Jeff, we’ve made progress since 1970, but the pace and impact has slowed. Also, things like antibiotics–which revolutionized medicine–are becoming ineffective because of resistant germs. I was hoping gene-therapy would take off, but we’re decades away from any Big Applications.
There have been cases recently where people with stage 4 cancers have been cured by targeted gene applications, but the days of regrowing limbs as in SF books are a long way away, I’m afraid.
Jeff, I was hoping for immortality!
I think there are significant innovations in certain fields. Just not ones that drive an economy or create jobs. It is possible we do not need people to work as long and hard as they have in the past. We just need to figure out they can survive on it.
Patti, plenty of my students fear that whatever job they get after graduation will be automated away.
Look at how excited we were in 1980-81 when we got our first VCRs. Did you ever think of the last time you had to get up and walk over to the television to change the channel or adjust the color or the vertical hold? We grew up with black & white television. We now have hundreds of channels with 24/7 programming and can record 6 hows at once to watch whenever we want, can pause and rewind even live shows, can start over, have On Demand, more than half a dozen HBO and Showtime and other pay channels, can call up hundreds of shows and movies on Netflix, etc.
Then there is the internet. This morning Rick mentioned a book on his blog. I went to my library’s website, saw they had a copy available but also had an ebook version, logged in to my account (and my Amazon account), and downloaded the book to my Kindle.
I’d say in some ways we live in amazing times.
Jeff, problems like climate change and automation and creepy diseases like Ebola and the Zika Virus challenge us.
The same stagnation happened after the Industrial Revolution in Europe and America a century ago. Now, people are closer together in a communication sense, and they all feel entitled to their opinion say so, but while people have more connectedness, they also are more dependent and have less self-sufficiency than ever. If our internet provider goes down, we’re on an island. If the electricity goes out, we’re helpless.
During that growth period technology and manufacturing were used to solve big problems; food, transportation, basic communications, building and safety. Now it’s which icon to tap and which app to use. Innovation doesn’t seem to matter as much, unless you need medical help for something that hasn’t been solved yet.
Rick, quite right. The pace of innovation has certainly slowed. Perhaps we’re comfortable and don’t have the motivation for Big Project like we used to. Necessity is the Mother of Invention.
George, really big projects now adays need un unbelievable amount of money!
Just think about the colonisation of Mars or just a journey there (not one way …) – how many billions would that cost?
Elon Musk has plans for this it seems.
Wolf, the USA seems to be able to find money for military “projects.” But big social projects, like the Highway System or NASA, seem beyond us now.
Rick–I know you said one of the books I posted about on your blog Monday–Meg Little Reilly’s WE ARE UNPREPARED–didn’t seem like your cup of tea, but everything you just wrote is addressed in her book. I read somewhere that if the internet went down for three days, we’d be in complete anarchy by day four.
Well, SOME people might feel pretty lost after two or three days, but many of us would simply go one with life the way we would have 20 years ago: read a book, run errands, work in the garden, chat with neighbors, have a cup of coffee or whatever.
I’ve got a few science fiction books on the shelf (unread, of course) with a similar premise. Knock out the satellites and we are helpless.
Jeff, this week I had student tell me she could not live without WI-Fi!
One of my daughters was having phone problems and had to come home to get a new phone even though she could still text and get phone calls. “You don’t understand,” she told us dramatically, “my phone is my life!” To which my husband responded, “You need to re-evaluate your life.”
But she still got the new phone.
Deb, my students are compulsively attached to their smartphones. Texting is their Life.
Only half a YAWN for this one since I agree partly with the premise!
Bob, all this book is a whopper, the information will keep the yawns at bay!
Don’t bet on it!
Along wіth opener Mіlo.