“There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” –Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (2002)
Amar Bhide, Professor at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, takes a deep dive into probabilities and knowledge management in Uncertainty and Enterprise: Venturing Beyond the Known (2025).
Bhide stresses the importance of facts and reliable data in the process of making decisions. But Bhide also analyzes the work of Frank Knight, John Maynard Keynes, Hebert Simon, and many other researchers who wrote about uncertainty in making decisions.
The old saying, “Garbage in, Garbage Out,” applies to the process of decision making. False “facts” and “fake” news damage the process of making the right choice.
My favorite chapter in Uncertainty and Enterprise was “Daniel Ellsberg’s Ambiguity: A Simplifying Side Trip.” I only knew about Daniel Ellsberg’s Vietnam War role in the Pentagon Papers case. But Bhide examines Ellsberg’s 1961 article, “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms,” which support Bhide’s claims that not dealing with risk and ambiguity in decision making precisely encourages choices that contravene standard patterns and can lead to disasters…like the Vietnam War.
If you’re having trouble dealing with known unknowns and unknown unknowns, Amar Bhide’s book will bring you some needed enlightenment. GRADE: A
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Preface — ix
Part I: Invitation to the Voyage
1. The Offering — 3
2. Uncertainty as Doubt — 10
3. Conjectures about Justification — 23
4. Applications to Enterprise — 33
Part II: Formidable Obstacles, Forgotten Beacons
5. Frank Knight: The Spark That Did Not Ignite — 43
6. Practically Omniscient Microeconomics — 52
7. Imperfect Market Theories: Realism without Fallibility — 60
8. John Maynard Keynes: Help to Distraction — 69
9. Herbert Simon: Faded Guiding Star — 90
10. Daniel Ellsberg’s Ambiguity: A Simplifying Side Trip — 110
11. Kahneman and Tversky: Gaining Acceptance, Dropping Uncertainty — 126
12. Richard Thaler & Co.: Building the New Behavioral Boomtowns — 148
Part III: The Specialization of Enterprise
13. Including Uncertainty: Recapitulation and Preview — 165
14. “Bootstrapping” Improvised Startups — 176
15. Calculating Capitalists: VCs and Angels Investors — 197
16. The Evolution of Dynamic Bureaucracies — 217
17. The Dominions of Giants — 232
Part IV: Imaginative Discourse
18. The Aims of Discourse — 259
19. The Devices of Discourse — 268
20. Stories As Side Dishes — 281
21. Spillovers from Popular Stories — 298
Part V: Coda
22. The Case for Widening — 315
Acknowledgments — 335
Notes — 337
References — 383
Index — 405
And, alas, all the chaos introduced by the current clown car in this country and a few others…
Todd, Trump’s move against Comey is not uncertain. Trump is going down his Enemies List for Retribution Time.
His uncertainties come with his fantasies of improving the lives of most citizens, or at least Those Who Count, through his applications of pique and transient fantasies to policy. His bitter resentment of anyone who doesn’t worship him is certainly vastly more concrete as well as leaden.
Todd, Retribution by the Department of Justice will continue for years.
I’m with Todd. Ambiguity and the unknown I can deal with when I’m confident that decisions are the leadership level are being made while taking those things into account; but when rash and reckless claims are being made on the flimsiest pretexts with no supporting data whatsoever (see: the bogus link between Tylenol and autism, or that blue cities are “war zones”), anxiety, doubt, and distrust are bound to set in. I suspect with this Administration that is a feature not a bug.
Deb, Trump was called the “Chaos President” during his first term. He’s amped up his wild actions in his second terms. More anxiety if the Government shuts down this week…
The only lies and unreliable data come from that party of Satan — the Democrats — and from science. I know this to be true because that’s what the healthiest, most stable genius, and most masculine man in history, Taco Don, has told us, and I know it must be true because he never took Tylenol during pregnancy. He even refused his presidential salary because he does not want to profit in any way from serving us, his beloved people. All hail THE DONALD! (who never met Einstein, or Upstain, or whatever his name was…).
Jerry, TACO Don makes a mess of things. We’re in for a Rough Ride the next few years.
Trump doesn’t know what he doesn’t know because…he knows everything! At least, he seems to believe that.
Jackie’s theory about a lot of the crap coming out of Washington is, outside of his obsessions (taxes, revenge), all the other stuff is coming from Russell Vought and whoever else has Trump’s ear. They tell him whatever shit (fire all the experts, get rid of the civil service) they care about (crypto) and he regurgitates it as if it came from his mind,(sic, so called).
We’re doomed, doomed.
Jeff, some people are certainly doomed with Trump running the Government. The poor, the sick, the uneducated are going to take a Hit.
We’re doomed and the amazing thing is much of the misery is going to be felt by the poorest people in red states. They support the orange blob even though the loss of Medicaid, housing and food assistance etc will hit them severely. They voted against their best interest. I feel no pity for his supporters who will suffer.
Maggie, I feel sad for anybody who is suffering. I suspect the Red State voters believed Trump’s empty promises about fixing the Economy and stopping the Ukraine and Gaza Wars on Day One. I’m sure many of the people who voted for Trump are going to have Buyer’s Remorse as unemployment rises, prices go up, and healthcare premiums double in price.
I will disagree only to the extent that I suspect that most Drumpf voters voted for someone who embodied their resentment–any with any engagement with the larger world were aware that Drumpf’s grasp on reality beyond blatant grafting and embezzlement is tenuous at best…and he’s not good at ever hiding that and proud of that disability…and that has worked for him better than it ever should’ve.
Todd, no one disputes Trump knows how to market his agenda. Trump uses his base’s resentments to garner their votes. As Maggie pointed out, the MAGA crowd votes against their interests. That’s the danger of drinking the Kool-Aid.
I think a lot of his voters just love a bully. The behavior of Americans at the Ryder Cup this week shows how many have adopted his bad behavior and language too.
Patti, the golf fans’ behavior at the Ryder Cup was embarrassing. The whole world thinks we’re a bunch of creeps!
That’s amusing. Who riots, loots, burns, occupies, and perpetrates violence? The Left!
Bob, I’m not sure the Left has a monopoly on riots, looting, or violence.
Boo hoo!
As for this book, it seems like it was written just for you! No one else would waste time or money on this bushwa!
Bob, as a guy who hangs out at the casino a lot, you should appreciate the importance of uncertainty!
It’s not the money, George, it’s the action!
Bob, but the Homes aways wins in the end. The games are fixed.
We call that using our entertainment dollar!