With the havoc Trump’s tariffs have caused, with the chaos Elon Musk and DOGE have inflicted on our Government, and the sense of DOOM in the air as a result of Trump’s Iran War, David Spiegelhalter’s useful The Art of Uncertainty: Living with Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (2024) brings some clarity to dealing with all this pandemonium.
David Spiegelhalter is a professor emeritus of statistics at the University of Cambridge. He was knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics. The key to dealing with uncertainty–which increases by the day under Trump–is understanding how to handle ignorance and risk.
One of the problems with today’s ignorance is determining what is True and what is Fake News. The Internet floods our lives with bogus facts, rumors, conspiracy theories, and bullshit. Sorting out what is Real and what is Fake requires time and energy. But, as in the old computer saying: GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT. If you make decisions based on false “facts” the end result will be wrong. Just look at the people who didn’t inoculate their kids with Measles vaccine and opted for castor oil and Vitamin-A.
The other key factor to deal with is risk. Again, there’s a shitstorm of deceptive and misleading “news” flooding our computers and cell phones daily. Spiegelhalter shows how to assess risks in various instances despite the counterfeit data.
Spieglehalter believes the old adage formulated by Pascal: “Chance favors the prepared mind.” In essence, we make our own Luck by choosing the right times and places to act based on preparation. If you want some tools to deal with the current (and future) catastrophes, The Art of Uncertainty is a good guidebook. GRADE: B+
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
INTRODUCTION — 1
Uncertainty is personal — 11
Putting uncertainty into numbers — 21
Taming chance with probability — 38
Surprises and coincidences — 65
Luck — 84
It’s all a bit random — 102
Being Bayesian — 122
Science and uncertainty — 142
How much confidence do we have in our analysis? — 164
What, or who, is to blame? : causality, climate, and crime — 174
Predicting the future — 194
Risk, failure and disaster — 214
Deep uncertainty — 232
Communicating uncertainty and risk — 241
Making decisions and managing risks — 258
The future of uncertainty — 276
Acknowledgements — 283
Notes — 285
Glossary — 299
Index — 309
Unfortunately, there is no clarity when dealing with Trump. Nobody knows what he is doing from one day to the next, and that includes him.
Jeff, Trump is now attacking the Pope. What a moron!
Peripheral ,but relevant: https://substack.com/@harryshearer971370/note/p-194062994
Todd, thanks for the link!
By pure coincidence, ignorance and uncertainty are my middle names. I survive by a healthy dose of doubt and the full knowledge that if a politician, internet commentator, or advertisement says it, it is bullshit. And those who listen to Trump suffer the consequences — their skin turns green, their face breaks out in pustules, and their hair falls out in clumps.
Jerry, truer words were never spoken!
So long as 4 out of 10 voters support Genghis Con as the polls insist, as long as the Dems try to “negotiate” with the intransigent GOP, as long as the Musks and Bezoses thrive, and as long as the far right holds the threat of armed insurrection over the rest of us, nothing will change. Short of the unthinkable in terms of war and/or pestilence, we’re stuck with Trump and the legacy of his sociopathy for the next 3 years and beyond. No amount of logical thinking makes a bit of difference, although I welcome any assertion otherwise.
Fred, I suspect this War with Iran will change things…for the worst. Every the MAGA set have to be feeling the pain at the pump. And Trump promised an end to Foreign Wars…another promise he reneged on. The Dems need to stick to the affordability issue and beat the GOP over the head with it.
I sttrongly suspect the further smoorhing of his brain crenulations and the other ailments he clearly suffers will take him out before the end of this term. President Vance. Yish.
Drumpf’s notion that “I heal people” in his little carton of himself laying on light-emitting hands will, I hope, alienate a few more of those who keep trying to find reasons he isn’t an insane fraud and lifelong criminal.
More like barely 3 of 10, if polls are to be believed. Now lets see how many come out at vote, assuming Drumpf doesn’t forget to send ICE to the polls…
And comparing himself to Jesus…I can’t believe his supposedly Christian party can’t stop him. Or won’t.
Patti, a super religious woman at the Pool told me: “God sent Trump to save us.” I had to dunk myself to keep from laughing.
I would have laughed in her face and call her batshit crazy, George. But then again, I have no filter, and am nowhere near as polite as you.
Jerry, the latest AI generated picture of Trump as Christ plays to these religious voters.
How do hypocrites like Franklin Graham sleep at night after seeing Trump compare himself to Jesus? He was “Sent by God”? To do what, destroy the world?
Fuck that guy.
Jeff, Trump is finally getting some pushback by the Religious Right on his AI generated picture of Trump as Jesus.
More a Mammonite and Molochian party, despite their claims otherwise.
Another BS book! Pass! Sorry to see TDS has a firm foothold in this group! I guess time will tell if it’s justified! Maybe it’s why New York City has a commie Muslim for a mayor!
Time and performance have not only told, but at top volume and casualty counts.
Todd, all factors Trump ignores.
From THE INDEPENDENT: https://www.the-independent.com/voices/trump-iran-war-mindset-control-b2955405.html
And from the Similarly Suspect (to true believers) NY TIMES yesterday: https://archive.ph/dkJyl
Todd, thanks for the links!